Geologists in the US and India have predicted the arrival of a devastating earthquake in the Himalayas. The grim outlook includes possible deaths of around 40,000 people in the region. The evidence to support this claim comes from analyses of the Asian-Indian fault line, carried out by scientists at Stanford University in the US and the National Geophysical Research Institute in India. The work was made public at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco a few weeks ago.
The teams involved in this study used seismometers to measure ground movements. The meters were positioned in a cluster over the fault, which allowed visualisation of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault that is clearer than ever before. Through this, the researchers discovered that the MHT fault differs in several respects with regards to former observations.
There is a significant ‘dip’ in the MHT fault; a steep gradient of around 15 degrees exists which is likely to rupture. If this were to happen a ‘mega-quake’ would result. According to Simon Klemperer, Stanford’s Professor of Geophysics, the quake “will happen — the question is when. I would be very surprised if we didn’t have a magnitude 8 earthquake somewhere along the Himalayan Front this century.”
As mentioned above, the consequences of this quake could be dire in terms of cost to human life. Models predict that the quake would arise in Nepal’s Kathmandu region, before going on to cause widespread flooding over a large area. The possibility of this mega-quake has been proposed; now it remains to be seen what preparations are implemented to counter the potential damage.
GeoHazards International is an organisation that helps countries prepare for earthquakes. Its President, Brian Tucker, states the need for new, structurally sound hospitals and schools in the Kathmandu area. Existing buildings should be made tremor-resistant. If appropriate measures exist, the quake’s effects can be controlled.
